Dr Rob Taylor

Modelling an apple to kiwifruit transition in Te Tauihu

Predicting the sustainability implications of land-use change requires tools that can integrate environmental, economic, and social outcomes at regional scales. In an early use case of the KAMA Model, a food system scenario model designed to support exploration of future land-use pathways in Aotearoa New Zealand, we examine a scenario in which 50% of current apple growing land in Te Tauihu is converted to gold kiwifruit production. The model combines land-use data, suitability mapping, and activity-based economic, employment, and emissions data to estimate the consequences of this transition. Results indicate that replacing half of the region’s apple area with gold kiwifruit has strong profitability gains, increases employment slightly, but also raises carbon emissions substantially. While economically attractive, the transition illustrates important trade-offs between profitability, employment, and environmental outcomes. This use case demonstrates the value of the KAMA Model for assessing land use change scenarios and identifying opportunities, constraints, and consequences across multiple dimensions of sustainability.